Conscious nutrition is one of the most important trends in the consumer sector. Environmentally friendly diets, consideration for various intolerances, and organic food are leading to a boom in niche offerings. However, not every niche is profitable, and not every provider is successful. One of the most prominent companies in the industry, a manufacturer with online direct sales and a strong focus on social selling, is experiencing difficulties after a period of very dynamic growth. Business is collapsing, and marketing costs are developing unfavorably. Is the company not being managed optimally, or has its business model run its course? The company’s bank is demanding a going concern forecast and is engaging a leading restructuring consultancy. This consultancy is identifying immediate opportunities to increase profitability. But the crucial question remains: Will the market continue to grow, and are the sales targets realistic? Hase & Igel is tasked with determining this.
By analyzing data from advertising systems, web shops, and CRM, AI-supported analysis is used to identify leading indicators that indicate customers willing to pay. At the same time, HASE & IGEL uses the Neutrum AI Targeter to determine which behavioral characteristics—e.g., certain Google searches, visits to specific websites and content—can be used to predict user numbers and follower activation of market participants in the industry with a similar online and social media mix. From these characteristics, a forecasting model is developed that functions with high quality based solely on online behavioral data. In the Neutrum Market Check, this data is collected retrospectively over several years and subjected to AI-supported trend analyses. This provides a clear understanding of how demand trends are developing for the various products and use cases, and what forecasts can be made for the next 18 months.
It is clear that the company’s product development and marketing have lost touch with key trends: In its core business, sales development is within the benchmark – but this business has already passed its peak. In contrast, adjacent business areas that are generally well-served were not developed in time to profit sufficiently quickly from the boom that has already begun in some areas and is expected in others shortly. Based on this, the going concern forecast is negative; operations will be discontinued, and a satisfactory residual value will still be achieved. Further over-indebtedness will be avoided.
German 
